Trade FinanceData
WTO forecasts 1.9% merchandise trade growth in 2026 amid supply chain pressures
Electronic components index reaches 104.9 points as AI demand offsets maritime transport cost increases.
WTO projects slower merchandise trade growth for 2026#
The World Trade Organization forecast in March 2026 that global merchandise trade volume would grow by 1.9 percent this year, compared with 4.6 percent growth recorded in 2025. The September Goods Trade Barometer reading stood at 102.0 points, improving from 101.7 points in June, indicating merchandise trade volumes are expanding faster than baseline rates calculated over recent decades. Readings above the 100-point threshold signal growth exceeding historical averages.
Electronic components drive barometer above baseline#
The electronic components index reached 104.9 points in September, the strongest reading among all component indices, reflecting demand for semiconductors and components linked to artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. The export orders index strengthened to 103.5, indicating continued merchandise trade growth in coming months. International air freight and agricultural raw materials indices rose above trend, while the automotive products index reached 101.5. The container shipping index dipped slightly below the 100-point baseline.
Maritime transport costs remain elevated through year-end#
The WTO stated that trade growth remains uneven across regions, with persistently higher maritime transport costs and shipping rerouting continuing to affect global supply chains through the remainder of 2026. The organization warned that growth could fall to 1.4 percent under a scenario of persistently high energy prices. One-fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, where military tensions between the United States and Iran have created supply chain uncertainty.
Tariffs and policy uncertainty cloud outlook#
Protectionist trade policies have cast uncertainty over supply chains following the imposition of wide-ranging tariffs on major U.S. trading partners by President Donald Trump's administration. The WTO noted that the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. Continued investment and demand for electronic components and semiconductors linked to artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure have sustained merchandise flows. All component indices except container shipping stood above the 100-point baseline in September.
Sources1 source across 1 domain
- economymiddleeast.comEconomy Middle EastWTO forecast 1.9% merchandise trade growth in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025; September Goods Trade Barometer at 102.0 points; electronic components index at 104.9; export orders index at 103.5; automotive products index at 101.5; container shipping index below 100; downside scenario of 1.4% growth; o
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